Welcome to ModerateTrader.com
Home of the MODERATE TRADER



Moderate Trader
Stocks for Traders
Asset Allocations
Options
Past Moderate Traders
Stocks for traders
July 2002



Speculators who like to trade frequently could buy stocks listed in this section. Investors should be aware that short-term trading involves a much greater risk, and preferably no more than 10 percent of one’s portfolio should be invested in these stocks. Many of the stocks in the technology sector should be bought when they reach low levels. Speculators could achieve short-term gains of up to 100 percent or higher on some of these stocks.


LSI Logic Corporation (NYSE symbol: LSI) makes chips for cellular phones, satellite set-top boxes, DVD products, and personal computers. LSI Logic has manufacturing facilities in the United States, Europe, and Japan.

As the demand for cellular phones and set-top boxes continues to grow in double-digits, the revenues and earnings of LSI Logic could outperform the rest of the companies in the chip sector. In our opinion, due to the strong demand for cellular phones and handheld wireless devices, long-term, the demand for chips made by LSI will continue to grow.

This stock broke through its support level of $15.08 on April 25, 2002, and closed at $14.02 per share. On June 14, 2002, this stock closed at $9.32 per share and we rated it a screaming buy. On July 12, 2002, this stock closed at $7.41 per share and we maintain our rating of a speculative screaming buy.

Due to the negative short-term outlook for the market it could take a while longer for the stocks of chipmakers to rebound to their recent highs. We projected that LSI may appreciate substantially by the end of 2002, but it may take this stock a few more months and it could reach our short-term sell target level of approximately $22.25 per share in the first half of 2003. At such a level, speculators should sell it immediately to lock in their short-term gain. On the other hand, patient investors may hold this stock for four years and if it were to test its resistance level of $58.75 per share sell it immediately.


PeopleSoft, Inc. (NASDAQ symbol: PSFT) designs and distributes enterprise resource planning software for large and medium size companies. The latest software can even manage payroll, benefits administration, pension administration, and scheduling.

In November 2001, we stated: “This equity may continue its upward trend but it could find a very strong resistance at the $40 level.” On December 6, 2001, this stock closed at $41.00 per share and then proceeded to pull back.

Recently, this stock was already in a downtrend and on February 21, 2002, closed at a low of $27.89 per share. Afterwards, as money flow rose $1.8 billion, this equity proceeded to test its resistance level and closed at $38.00 per share on March 11, 2002.

Between April 1, 2002, and April 3, 2002, money flow fell $2.1 billion and PSFT fell from $37.37 to $24.76 per share as of April 3, 2002. This equity remained in a slow downtrend and on May 29, 2002, closed at $19.39 per share. As money flow continued to fall, this equity closed at $18.20 per share on June 14, 2002. Last month we stated that this stock could test its support level of $17.67 per share. On June 21, 2002, PSFT broke through this support level and closed at $16.92 per share, down $1.08 for the day. This stock closed at $14.73 per share on July 12, 2002. If money flow continues to fall this equity could reach a low of $8.61 per share by the end of September 2002. At such a low level we would rate this stock a speculative, strong short-term buy. As the earnings outlook improves, this stock could reach approximately $27.89 per share in the second half of 2003.


Siebel Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ symbol: SEBL) is a major supplier of management software for large corporations.

After reaching a high of $119.32 on November 7, 2000, this stock proceeded to fall. By December 14, 2000, this stock was down to $79.81 per share.

On April 3, 2001, this stock closed at a low of $23.06 per share, then reversed its downtrend and closed at $54.97 on May 21, 2001. In August’s 2001, Buy & Sell we stated: “The next support level is $30 and if this stock were to break through this level, it could retest its April support level of $23.06.”

This stock broke through this level on August 23, 2001, and closed at $21.90 per share. Due to the September 11 tragedy, this stock continued to fall and closed at $12.99 on September 27, 2001.

On January 8, 2002, this stock closed at $33.30 per share. Due to the very strong money flow, this stock closed at a high of $37.20 per share on January 25, 2002, and then proceeded to fall.

On February 28, 2002, this stock closed at a low of $27.76 per share, then proceeded to test its resistance level and closed at $36.64 on March 11, 2002.

As money flow fell, on April 26, 2002, this stock broke through its support level of $23.67 and closed at $22.59 per share.

On June 3, 2002, this stock tested its support level and closed at $17.62 per share. As money flow continued to fall, this equity closed at $14.86 per share on June 14, 2002. In June 2002, we stated “We have lowered our buy target level from $16.45 to $12.98 per share and this stock may reach it by mid September 2002.”

This stock fell faster than we projected and broke through our revised buy target level on July 9, 2002, closing at $12.49 per share, down $0.70 for the day. On July 12, 2002, this stock closed at $11.53 per share.

There is a slight probability that the money flow could continue to fall at a fast pace and this equity may reach a low level of approximately $6.75 per share by mid September 2002. At such a level this stock would be a strong buy. As the earnings outlook improves, this stock may test its resistance level of $27.75 in the first half of 2003. As soon as this stock reaches such a level, speculators should sell it immediately to lock in their short-term gain.


Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE symbol: AMD) manufactures microprocessors, flash memory devices, data communications products, and network products. While the demand for microprocessors continued to grow worldwide in the year 2000, Intel Corporation was not able to produce enough chips due to insufficient manufacturing capacity. During that time AMD was able to increase its market share. AMD and Intel continue their fierce competition.

AMD could continue to spend a large percentage of its gross revenues on research and development and try to keep pace with Intel by introducing faster processors to the market. As AMD sells a larger quantity of higher priced processors, the average selling price will continue to rise, thus improving profit margins.

The stock of AMD reached a high of $94.63 per share on June 21, 2000 (after the 2-for-1 stock split that was issued on August 22, 2000, this high was adjusted to $47.32). Before the company issued the split, the stock was already in a downtrend. During the sell-off in chip stocks, this stock closed at $13.81 per share on December 29, 2000.

Due to the strong money flow, this stock proceeded to rebound and closed at $20.00 per share on January 4, 2002. On January 8, 2002, this stock closed at $19.90 per share and we stated: “in our opinion it is fully valued at this level.”

On April 12, 2002, this stock closed at $13.15 per share. This stock maintained its downtrend and on April 18, 2002, broke through its support level of $12.85 and closed at $12.60 per share, down $2.21 for the day. As the money flow continued to fall, this stock maintained its slow downtrend and closed at $9.60 per share on June 14, 2002.

This stock reached our buy target level on June 21, 2002, and closed at $8.04 per share. On July 12, 2002, AMD closed at $9.10 per share and we maintain our rating of a screaming buy. Depending on the money flow and other key indicators this stock could test its support level of $6.55 by the end of September 2002, and at such a level speculators may want to buy more shares.

The trend of this stock is much slower than we projected. It took this equity much longer to fall, and it may also take AMD much longer to build an upward momentum. Depending on the money flow and other key indicators, it may take this stock several months to reach its high level. Therefore, we have revised the time frame when this stock may reach its high level.

Before March 2002, we projected that the stocks of chipmakers may appreciate substantially by the end of the first half of 2002. Due to the much slower trend, the stocks in this sector could reach their high level in the first half of 2003. The stock of AMD may reach approximately $19.60 per share. At such a level speculators should sell it immediately to lock in their short-term gain.


RF Micro-Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ symbol: RFMD) designs, develops, manufactures and markets semiconductors and components for the wireless handset market, pagers, the broadband cable communications sector, and wireless security. The company offers a wide selection of products such as amplifiers, mixers, single chip transmitters, receivers and transceivers.

Among the microprocessors made by the company are gallium arsenide-based chips that are the most expensive and generate the highest profit margin. The company’s largest customer is the Nokia Corporation.

In 1999, the company’s wafer fabrication facility had a maximum production capacity of approximately 35,000 four-inch wafers per year. The company planned to increase the annual capacity to 60,000 four-inch wafers by the end of the calendar year 2000. Furthermore, in order to expand manufacturing capacity, the company began construction of a second wafer fabrication facility in 1999. The construction was completed in 2001 and eventually the total annual output from this facility alone could reach 210,000 four-inch wafers.

The company plans to increase the production capacity gradually to meet the market demand. RF Micro-Devices, Inc. estimated that the cost to build and equip this facility would be approximately $140 million for the first phase and $180 million for the second phase.

On December 11, 2001, this stock closed at $25.52 per share. This stock was already in a downtrend and on January 8, 2002, closed at $19.40 per share.

On June 7, 2002, money flow fell $41 million and the stock closed at $10.12 per share, down $5.12. As money flow continued to fall, this equity closed at $9.00 per share on June 14, 2002. On June 20, 2002, this stock closed at $6.57 per share then reversed its downward trend and proceeded to test its resistance level. This equity closed at $8.74 per share on July 12, 2002.

This stock could test its support level of $6.57 and if it were to break that level it may fall below $5.50 per share by mid September 2002. Speculators may acquire half of the shares at approximately $6.57 and the remaining half approximately two months from now, in September.

In our opinion, as the demand for wireless handsets continues to grow worldwide, the long-term outlook for RFMD is excellent. Although this stock may not repeat its previous performance, (It rose from a low of $2.78 per share in the second fiscal quarter of 1999 to $184.50 in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2000) it could generate a return of up to 2,000 percent during the next five years, and $1,000 invested in this stock may appreciate to $20,000 by the year 2007. This sector is very volatile. Therefore, investors who buy this stock should prepare themselves for a bumpy ride.

As the sales of the wireless handsets improve, the demand for microprocessors made by RF Micro-Devices, Inc. may increase and the stock could reach $22.50 per share in the second half of 2003, depending on the earnings, money flow and other key indicators. At such a level speculators should sell this stock immediately.


Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ symbol: CTXS) is a worldwide leader in the application serving software that allows its customers to run any application on any device over any connection, wired or wireless, or the Web. This company operates in 12 countries and has over 100,000 customers and over 24 million users worldwide. That includes 90 percent of Fortune 500® companies.

In the year 2000, Citrix Systems, Inc. entered into Application Service Provider partnership agreements with IBM and British Telecom. Furthermore, the company announced Web Enterprise Information Portal licensing agreements with Yahoo! and My SAP.com ™.

This stock was a great performer in the year 2000, when it reached a high of $107.40 per share. Then the stock proceeded in a downtrend. On March 14, 2001, this stock fell to $17.31 per share. As the market proceeded to rally, this stock reversed its downtrend and on May 31, 2001, this equity closed at $23.90 per share.

On January 8, 2002, this stock closed at $22.85 per share and at this level was fully valued. Then, on April 24, 2002, this stock broke through its support level of $13.50 and closed at $12.60 per share, down $1.56 for the day.

On May 10, 2002, this stock closed at $10.35 per share and we rated it a speculative, strong short-term buy. This equity remained in a narrow trading pattern and closed at $9.40 per share on June 14, 2002. This stock closed at a low level of $5.00 per share on July 9, 2002, after the company lowered its earnings estimates for the second quarter.

This stock closed at $5.21 per share on July 12, 2002. Due to the negative short-term outlook for this sector CTXS could test its support level of $2.27 and speculators may want to average down and buy more shares at such a level.

If the earnings and the money flow were to improve, this equity could reach approximately $22.50 per share in the second half of 2003.


Computer Associates International, Inc. (NYSE symbol: CA) designs business application software and systems management software that allows computers to run efficiently. In addition, the company provides software that allows corporations to manage Web infrastructure. This company is the third largest after Microsoft Corporation and Oracle Corporation.

After reaching a high of $79.44 in January 2000, the stock proceeded to descend and closed at $24.78 per share on July 31, 2000. Due to the continued bear market, this stock closed at a low level of $22.70 per share on September 21, 2001.

As the money flow into this stock improved, this equity closed at $36.70 per share on January 8, 2002. At that time we stated “This stock is fully valued at this level.”

During January 2002, money flow fell one billion dollars and this stock closed at a low level of $27.69 on February 7, 2002, down $8.08 for the day. As institutional investors proceeded to sell this stock, money flow continued to fall at an extremely fast pace.

By February 22, 2002, money flow had fallen $1.5 billion during the previous four weeks and CA closed at a low level of $15.99 per share. Our initial buy target level for CA was $22.70 per share. Speculators who bought this equity at that level may hold it until it revisits its previous high of $25.50 per share.

On April 12, 2002, CA closed at $21.18 per share. Afterwards, this stock reversed its upward trend and proceeded to fall at a slow pace. On June 14, 2002, this stock closed at $17.08 per share. In June 2002, we stated, “There is a probability that this stock may test its support level of $15.99 in July 2002, and at such a level would be a speculative, strong short-term buy.”

This stock broke through its support level of $15.99 on July 1, 2002, and closed at $15.27 per share. As the money flow continued to fall this stock proceeded to break through its support levels and on July 12, 2002 closed at $13.56 per share. If the money flow continues to fall this stock could reach a low level of $10.25 per share by the end of November 2002. At such a level speculators may average down and acquire more shares.

The risk of owning CA is above average, therefore it should only be bought by speculators and it should not account for more than five percent of one’s portfolio.

We have revised our short-term sell target level for this stock downwards, from $37.50 to $25.50. Depending on the money flow and other key indicators this equity could reach such a level in the second half of 2003, and at such a level speculators should sell it immediately. On the other hand, patient investors may want to hold this stock long-term and if it were to reach our target level of $65 per share in 2005, sell it immediately.


EMC Corporation (NYSE symbol: EMC) is the major supplier of enterprise storage devices, software, and services. The company’s top of the line Symmetrix® system can hold 19 terabytes of data on 384 individual drives.

EMC Corporation acquired Data General in October 1999, and that added a selection of mid-priced storage devices. Although EMC Corporation’s hardware and software is the most expensive, 98 percent of customers are willing to recommend it to their colleagues and business associates.

As the Internet continues to grow and hundreds of millions of people go online during the next decade, we project that the need for storage devices could continue to grow in double-digits. In our opinion, EMC Corporation’s annual revenues could grow ten-fold, and reach $60 billion in ten years. During the past decade, this was the top performing stock on NYSE. The company consistently splits its stock, and the most recent stock split was 2-for-1 on June 5, 2000. After the split, the stock continued to ascend and closed at $103.18 per share on September 20, 2000.

During the carnage in the technology sector this stock proceeded to fall and closed at $39.76 per share on February 28, 2001. Due to the tremendous selling pressure, this stock continued to fall and closed at $11.16 per share on September 21, 2001.

After closing at a high level of $17.95 on December 5, 2001, this stock proceeded to fall. As money flow fell $2 billion during the last two months, this equity proceeded to reach new lows and on June 21, 2002, this stock closed at $6.21 per share. Afterwards this stock reversed its downtrend and closed at $8.55 per share on July 12, 2002.

This stock could test its support level of $6.21 by mid September 2002, and speculators may want to buy it at such a level.

EMC has the largest market share for storage equipment. As the sales rebound and earnings improve, this stock may test its resistance level, although it may take a while longer to reach it. This stock may reach our sell target level of $22.12 in the first half of 2003, and speculators should sell it immediately to lock in their short-term gain.





Go to Stocks For Traders, June 2002
Go to Stocks For Traders, May 2002
Go to Stocks For Traders, April 2002




Evergreen Publishing, Inc., mailed issues of the Moderate Trader by mail until August 2000. Since August 2000, Moderate Trader is posted only on the World Wide Web.

© Copyright 2000 - 2002 Evergreen Publishing Inc. Redistribution of content, whole or in part is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Evergreen Publishing Inc.



Questions? Comments? Please send them to webmaster@moderatetrader.com


Disclaimer
Moderate Trader.com is owned by Evergreen Publishing Inc. Evergreen Publishing Inc. does not guarantee the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided. Investors should confirm all information before making investment decisions. Neither Evergreen Publishing Inc., nor its agents shall be liable for any loss that results from the use of information provided herein. Officers and employees of this Web site may have a position in the securities mentioned herein.



This page was built by Cara Litberg.