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April 2002



Speculators who like to trade frequently could buy stocks listed in this section. Investors should be aware that short-term trading involves a much greater risk, and preferably no more than 10 percent of one’s portfolio should be invested in these stocks. Many of the stocks in the technology sector should be bought when they reach low levels. Speculators could achieve short-term gains of up to 100 percent, or higher, on some of these stocks.


PeopleSoft, Inc. (NASDAQ symbol: PSFT) designs and distributes enterprise resource planning software for large and medium size companies. The latest software can even manage payroll, benefits administration, pension administration, and scheduling.

In November, 2001, we stated: “This equity may continue its upward trend but it could find a very strong resistance at the $40 level.” On December 6, 2001, this stock closed at $41.00 per share and then proceeded to pull back.

Recently, this stock was already in a downtrend and on February 21, 2002, closed at a low of $27.89 per share. Afterwards, as money flow rose $1.8 billion, this equity proceeded to test its resistance level and closed at $38.00 per share on March 11, 2002.

Last month, after this equity tested its resistance level and closed at $38.00 per share on March 11, 2002, we stated, “This equity may continue its downtrend and in April, 2002, this stock may test its support level of $17.67 per share.”

Between April 1, 2002, and April 2, 2002, money flow fell $2.1 billion and PSFT fell from $37.37 to $24.76 per share as of April 3, 2002. There is a probability that this stock may continue its downtrend and in May, 2002, could test its support level of $17.67 per share.

Speculators should wait at least one week, because if this stock were to break through this support level, the next support level is $13.79. If this equity were to reach such a level, we would rate it a speculative, strong short-term buy.

Afterwards, if money flow were to improve, PSFT may reverse its downtrend and then could revisit its high of $37.37 by the end of August, 2002.

On April 12, 2002, this stock closed at $22.53 per share. If money flow were to improve, the stock of People Soft may reach approximately $32 per share by the end of August, 2002. If it does, speculators should sell it immediately to lock in their short-term gain.


RF Micro-Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ symbol: RFMD) designs, develops, manufactures and markets semiconductors and components for the wireless handset market, wireless Local Area Networks (LAN), pagers, the broadband cable communications sector, and wireless security. The company offers a wide selection of products such as amplifiers, mixers, single chip transmitters, receivers and transceivers.

Among the microprocessors made by the company are gallium arsenide-based chips that are the most expensive and generate the highest profit margin. The company’s largest customer is the Nokia Corporation.

In 1999, the company’s wafer fabrication facility had a maximum production capacity of approximately 35,000 four-inch wafers per year. The company planned to increase the annual capacity to 60,000 four-inch wafers by the end of the calendar year 2000. Furthermore, in order to expand manufacturing capacity, the company began construction of a second wafer fabrication facility in 1999. The construction was completed in 2001 and eventually the total annual output from this facility alone could reach 210,000 four-inch wafers.

The company plans to increase the production capacity gradually to meet the market demand. RF Micro-Devices, Inc. estimated that the cost to build and equip this facility would be approximately $140 million for the first phase and $180 million for the second phase.

In our opinion, as the demand for wireless handsets continues to grow worldwide, the long-term outlook for RFMD is excellent. Although this stock may not repeat its previous performance, (It rose from a low of $2.78 per share in the second fiscal quarter of 1999 to $184.50 in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2000) it could generate a return of up to 2,000 percent during the next five years, and $1,000 invested in this stock now, may appreciate to $20,000 by the year 2007.

This sector is very volatile. Therefore, investors who buy this stock should prepare themselves for a bumpy ride.

On December 11, 2001, this stock closed at $25.52 per share. This stock was already in a downtrend and on January 8, 2002, closed at $19.40 per share. On April 12, 2002, this stock closed at $18.34 per share.

If this stock were to break through its support level of $15.56 per share, it may test its next support level of $9.06 per share, in May, 2002. At such a level this stock would be a screaming buy.

As the sales of the wireless handsets improve, the demand for chips made by RF Micro-Devices, Inc. may increase and the stock could reach $29 per share by the end of August 2002. At such a level it should be sold immediately.


Computer Associates International, Inc. (NYSE symbol: CA) designs business application software and systems management software that allows computers to run efficiently. In addition, the company provides software that allows corporations to manage Web infrastructure. This company is the third largest after Microsoft Corporation and Oracle Corporation.

After reaching a high of $79.44 in January, 2000, the stock proceeded to descend and closed at $24.78 per share on July 31, 2000. Due to the continued bear market, this stock closed at a low level of $22.70 per share on September 21, 2001.

As the money flow into this stock improved, this equity closed at $36.70 per share on January 8, 2002. Last month we stated: “This stock is fully valued at this level.”

During January 2002, money flow fell by one billion dollars and this stock closed at a low level of $27.69 on February 7, 2002, down 8.08 for the day. As institutional investors proceeded to sell this stock, money flow continued to fall at an extremely fast pace.

By February 22, 2002, money flow fell by $1.5 billion during the previous four weeks and CA closed at a low level of $15.99 per share. Our buy target level for CA was $22.70 per share. Speculators who bought this equity at that level may hold it until it revisits its previous high of $37.50 per share, perhaps by June or July, 2002, and when it does the stock should be sold immediately.

On April 12, 2002, CA closed at $21.18 per share. The risk of owning this stock is above average, therefore it should only be bought by speculators and it should not account for more than five percent of one’s portfolio. Speculators may buy this stock on a pullback. This stock may reach $37.50 by July, 2002 and at such a level speculators should sell it immediately. On the other hand, patient investors may want to hold this stock long-term and if it were to reach our target level of $65 per share in 2003, should sell it immediately.


LSI Logic Corporation (NYSE symbol: LSI) makes chips for cellular phones, satellite set-top boxes, DVD products, and personal computers. LSI Logic has manufacturing facilities in the United States, Europe, and Japan.

As the demand for cellular phones and set-top boxes continues to grow in double-digits, the revenues and earnings of LSI Logic could outperform the rest of the companies in the chip sector. In our opinion, due to the strong demand for cellular phones and handheld wireless devices, long-term, the demand for chips made by LSI will continue to grow.

On April 12, 2002, this stock closed at $15.30 per share and may continue its slow downtrend. In May, 2002, this stock may test its support level of $11.20 per share and at such a level would be a screaming buy. Stocks of chipmakers may appreciate substantially by the end of 2002, and LSI could reach approximately $27.50 per share. At such a level, speculators should sell it immediately to lock in their short-term gain.


Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE symbol: AMD) manufactures microprocessors, flash memory devices, data communications products, and network products. While the demand for microprocessors continued to grow worldwide in the year 2000, Intel Corporation was not able to produce enough chips due to insufficient manufacturing capacity. During that time AMD was able to increase its market share. AMD and Intel continue their fierce competition.

AMD could continue to spend a large percentage of its gross revenues on research and development and try to keep pace with Intel by introducing faster processors to the market. As AMD sells a larger quantity of higher priced processors, the average selling price will continue to rise, thus improving profit margins.

The stock of AMD reached a high of $94.63 per share on June 21, 2000 (after the 2-for-1 stock split that was issued on August 22, 2000, this high was adjusted to $47.32). Before the company issued the split, the stock was already in a downtrend. During the sell-off in chip stocks, this stock closed at $13.81 per share on December 29, 2000.

Recently, due to the strong money flow, this stock proceeded to rebound and closed at $20.00 per share on January 4, 2002. On January 8, 2002, this stock closed at $19.90 per share and we stated: “in our opinion is fully valued at this level.”

On April 12, 2002, this stock closed at $13.15 per share. This stock could test its support level of $8.00 per share in May, 2002, and at such a level would be a screaming buy. Stocks of chipmakers may appreciate substantially by the end of the first half of 2002. AMD could reach approximately $27.50 per share by June, or July 2002, and at such level speculators should sell it immediately to lock in their short-term gain.


Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ symbol: CTXS) is a worldwide leader in the application serving software that allows its customers to run any application on any device over any connection, wired or wireless, or the Web. This company operates in 12 countries and has over 100,000 customers and over 24 million users worldwide. That includes 90 percent of Fortune 500® companies.

In the year 2000, Citrix Systems, Inc. entered into Application Service Provider partnership agreements with IBM and British Telecom. The company signed a major systems integrator agreement with Compaq to sell Citrix software on its servers and provide professional services support. Furthermore, the company announced Web Enterprise Information Portal licensing agreements with Yahoo! and My SAP.com ™.

This stock was a great performer in the year 2000, when it reached a high of $107.40 per share. Then the stock proceeded in a downtrend. On March 14, 2001, this stock fell to $17.31 per share. As the market proceeded to rally, this stock reversed its downtrend and on May 31, 2001, this equity closed at $23.90 per share.

Recently, this stock was very resilient and traded in a narrow range. On January 8, 2002, this stock closed at $22.85 per share and at this level was fully valued. This equity closed at a low level of $13.50 per share on February 22, 2002, then proceeded to test its resistance level and closed at $18.41 per share on March 14, 2002.

Although the company reported earnings that were in line with expectations, this stock proceeded to fall. On April 12, 2002, this stock closed at $14.64 per share. This stock may test its recent support level of $13.50 by the end of April, 2002, and at such a level we would rate this stock a speculative, strong short-term buy. If the money flow into this stock were to improve, this equity could reach approximately $22.50 per share by the end of July, 2002.


Siebel Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ symbol: SEBL) is a major supplier of management software for large corporations.

After reaching a high of $119.32 on November 7, 2000, this stock proceeded to fall. By December 14, 2000, this stock was down to $79.81 per share.

On April 3, 2001, this stock closed at a low of $23.06 per share, then reversed its downtrend and closed at $54.97 on May 21, 2001. In last August’s Buy & Sell we stated: “The next support level is $30 and if this stock were to break through this level, it could retest its April support level of $23.06.”

This stock broke through this level on August 23, 2001, and closed at $21.90 per share. Due to the September 11 tragedy, this stock continued to fall and closed at $12.99 on September 27, 2001.

On January 8, 2002, this stock closed at $33.30 per share. Due to the very strong money flow, this stock closed at a high of $37.20 per share on January 25, 2002, and then proceeded to fall

On February 28, 2002, this stock closed at a low of $27.76 per share, then proceeded to test its resistance level and closed at $36.64 on March 11, 2002.

This stock closed at $26.43 per share on April 12, 2002. This equity may test its support level of $16.45 per share by the end of June, 2002.

At such a level this stock would be a strong buy. As the earnings outlook improves, this stock may test its resistance level of $33.30 by the end of October, 2002. Once this stock reaches such a level, speculators should sell it immediately to lock in their short-term gain.


EMC Corporation (NYSE symbol: EMC) is the major supplier of enterprise storage devices, software, and services. The company’s top of the line Symmetrix® system can hold 19 terabytes of data on 384 individual drives.

EMC Corporation acquired Data General in October, 1999, and that added a selection of mid-priced storage devices. Although EMC Corporation’s hardware and software is the most expensive, 98 percent of customers are willing to recommend it to their colleagues and business associates.

As the Internet continues to grow and hundreds of millions of people go online during the next decade, we project that the need for storage devices could continue to grow in double-digits. In our opinion, EMC Corporation’s annual revenues could grow ten-fold, and reach $60 billion in ten years. During the past decade, this was the top performing stock on NYSE. The company consistently splits its stock, and the most recent stock split was 2-for-1 on June 5, 2000. After the split, the stock continued to ascend and closed at $103.18 per share on September 20, 2000.

During the carnage in the technology sector this stock proceeded to fall and closed at $39.76 per share on February 28, 2001. Due to the tremendous selling pressure, this stock continued to fall and closed at $11.16 per share on September 21, 2001.

After closing at a high level of $17.95 on December 5, 2001, this stock proceeded to fall. Since January 2002, money flow fell $1.8 billion. On April 9, 2002, this stock broke through its support level of $10.68 and closed at $10.36 per share. On April 12, 2002, this stock closed at $10.14 per share. At this level we rate this stock a speculative strong buy. Speculators may buy this stock for a short-term trade.

EMC has the largest market share for storage equipment. As the sales rebound and earnings improve, this stock may test its resistance level of $22.12 by the end of June or July, 2002, and speculators should sell it immediately to lock in their short-term gain.





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